2010 Topps Base Wax - When the Price is Right?

I need a break from the Topps Cards That Never Were...

Bad Wax had a recent post about what he’d like to see in 2010 from the sole MLB licensed trading card company, Topps. He broke it down into base or flagship product, then Chrome, blah, blah, blah. No disrespect to Bad Wax, but I’m more of an old school collector, so only the base set interests me.

That being said, the topic of base set wax prices came up, and they ranged from $1.50 for 15 cards up to $2.00 for 10 cards. However, the base cards desired were the old, non-gloss, straight up cardboard versions ala 1952 to 1992 Topps. Sure, a few insert ideas were proposed, but nothing really beyond what I saw back in my day.

This got me thinking again about card prices, and how I’ve harped on how pack prices have gone up exponentially since the change to “fancy” cards in 1993. So, 10 cents to 20 cents per card in 2010? Man, that will not get me back into the hobby, nor would it make a lot of kids want to drop the kind of cash I did back from 84 to 92 (prime Bad Wax Era).

So, I went back to my peak as a kid-collector, 1989. This was the year I busted my tail doing chores, scrapping together 5 bucks here and there, so I could ride my Huffy to the local pharmacy to pick up 11 packs of 89 Topps for just under five bucks. Five bucks back then brought home 165 cards, all with the hopes of a Tony Gwynn, or the immortal José.

Based on their desires, $5 now would bring home 25 to 50 cards. That does not seem like an easy way to build a collection as a kid. True, 5 dollars now is not five 1989 dollars, but inflation hasn’t gone up that much in the past 20 years. I remember when a loaf of bread…

Being statistically inquisitive, I pulled the Cost of Living increase numbers from the Social Security website, and started from 1989. 89 Topps got you 15 cards for 45 cents, or 3 cents a card. Since 1989, inflation has risen 61.4% cumulatively, which would put a 2010 Topps pack at 82 cents compounded (One must also remember that items seem much more desirable when they are under or at one dollar). Fifteen cards per pack at say 85 cents to round up, would be between 5 and 6 cents per card. Now five 2010 dollars would get you around 90 cards. Now we are talking.

As a kid, there are two aspects of collecting. First, trying to complete a set, and second, collecting your favorite players. To do either of these, one must have many cards, including lots of doubles, so one can trade. Trading would be dang hard to do if all you could get was 25 cards for $5, especially if the set size goes back up to 792 cards.

One can estimate, you need at least double the set size in cards to obtain a set. So, if you need to buy approximately 1600 cards to complete a 792 card set, we’re talking $160 to $320 based on $1.50 to $2 packs of 10. I don’t know many kids that have that kind of scratch lying around, let alone a parent that would dole that money out, when they can buy a complete hobby set for $40 to $50.

Now, if packs were 85 cents for 15, you’re in the ballpark of $80 for a kid to try and hand-collate a set. That’s still a lot of money to a kid, but at least it is somewhat reasonable. I’m sure Grandma gives at least $20 in birthday cards now, given inflation, of course.